Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.276827 0.337077 0.410761 0.508678 0.637172 0.802598 1.035931e+00
2025-04-27 0.171569 0.227049 0.302558 0.415697 0.586127 0.842384 1.275820e+00
2025-05-04 0.119058 0.168422 0.241747 0.363455 0.570838 0.931812 1.665195e+00
2025-05-11 0.085415 0.127577 0.194914 0.316962 0.549199 1.013195 2.147139e+00
2025-05-18 0.061991 0.096691 0.155466 0.270109 0.510120 1.053469 2.641343e+00
2025-05-25 0.046292 0.074874 0.125762 0.231570 0.472935 1.087245 3.233948e+00
2025-06-01 0.037349 0.062722 0.110318 0.216307 0.482189 1.257142 4.639515e+00
2025-06-08 0.030863 0.053635 0.098459 0.204958 0.498105 1.479803 6.968543e+00
2025-06-15 0.026225 0.047087 0.090105 0.199061 0.528753 1.810078 1.140410e+01
2025-06-22 0.022576 0.041759 0.083047 0.194126 0.562734 2.231991 1.969935e+01
2025-06-29 0.019123 0.036187 0.074149 0.181258 0.564318 2.540416 3.099692e+01
2025-07-06 0.015220 0.029039 0.060151 0.149474 0.477952 2.259463 3.155004e+01
2025-07-13 0.013281 0.025943 0.055458 0.144629 0.501060 2.758445 6.111203e+01
2025-07-20 0.011950 0.023962 0.053067 0.146273 0.557241 3.716757 1.648832e+02
2025-07-27 0.010929 0.022505 0.051697 0.151078 0.638711 5.342617 6.827654e+02
2025-08-03 0.009892 0.020828 0.049355 0.151748 0.704595 7.344058 4.029934e+03
2025-08-10 0.008802 0.018843 0.045705 0.146084 0.730281 9.163012 3.415052e+04
2025-08-17 0.007814 0.016960 0.041946 0.138536 0.738293 10.983903 1.196818e+06
2025-08-24 0.007186 0.015890 0.040365 0.139547 0.815097 15.755828 NaN
2025-08-31 0.006638 0.014938 0.038933 0.140729 0.901516 23.233143 NaN
2025-09-07 0.006191 0.014186 0.037963 0.143785 1.018104 37.004938 NaN
2025-09-14 0.005781 0.013471 0.036950 0.146313 1.143433 60.641486 NaN
2025-09-21 0.005298 0.012480 0.034797 0.141957 1.187517 83.972339 NaN